ATP Erste Bank Open 2026: who wins?
We simulated the remaining draw 20,000 times with our surface Elo ratings. Carlos Alcaraz is the favourite with a 45% chance of the title; 6 of 32 players are still in. Updated 30 October at 18:05 UTC.
Results already played are fixed; every open match is decided by the Elo win probability. Model estimate, not a betting tip. 18+.
| Player | R2 | QF | SF | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz (2WC) · #3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 68% | 45% |
| Alexander Zverev [1] · #2 | 100% | 100% | 79% | 52% | 25% |
| Daniil Medvedev [3] · #5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 32% | 15% |
| Alex De Minaur [5] · #10 | 100% | 100% | 74% | 34% | 13% |
| Arthur Fery · #35 | 100% | 100% | 22% | 8% | 2% |
| Matteo Berrettini · #48 | 100% | 100% | 26% | 7% | 1% |
| Adrian Mannarino (Q) · #73Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrey Rublev · #22Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Nakashima · #17Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cameron Norrie · #41Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Merida Aguilar · #42Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Flavio Cobolli [4] · #6Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Frances Tiafoe [6] · #9Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francisco Cerundolo · #19Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Grigor Dimitrov (WC) · #124Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignacio Buse · #32Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Fearnley (Q) · #86Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jakub Mensik [8] · #16Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jurij Rodionov (WC) · #137Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Karen Khachanov · #24Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Learner Tien · #18Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lorenzo Musetti · #26Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Van Assche · #46Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luciano Darderi · #23Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas Neumayer (Q) · #168Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Landaluce (WC) · #67Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Arnaldi · #36Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili (SE) · #95Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tallon Griekspoor · #50Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomas Machac (Q) · #71Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry · #29Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tommy Paul [7] · #14Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
Columns show the chance to reach each stage. Percentages below 1% are shown as <1%.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
Title chances are the model's view of the draw. Our actual picks get a full written analysis in the free Discord, posted before each match.