Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Sat 31 Oct, 09:00 UTC
Daniil Medvedev: In formCarlos Alcaraz: In formDaniil Medvedev: BusyDaniil Medvedev: Top 10Carlos Alcaraz: Top 10
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Model vs. market
Daniil Medvedevmodel 32% · market 32%
Carlos Alcarazmodel 68% · market 68%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (5.6%) removed.
- Daniil Medvedev has won 9 of the last 10 matches.
- Carlos Alcaraz has won 9 of the last 10 matches.
- Daniil Medvedev is 6–1 on i.hard in 2026.
- Carlos Alcaraz leads the head-to-head 6–3.
- Daniil Medvedev has played 8 matches in the last 14 days.
Daniil Medvedev
- Ranking
- #5 (seed 3)
- Elo
- 1827
- Indoor hard 2026
- 6–1
- Matches, last 14 days
- 8
- Days since last match
- 1
Last 10: 9W – 1L
- vs Cameron Norrie · 2026-10-29Won
- vs Daniel Merida Aguilar · 2026-10-28Won
- vs Nikoloz Basilashvili · 2026-10-25Won
- vs Alexander Bublik · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Terence Atmane · 2026-10-23Won
- vs Sho Shimabukuro · 2026-10-22Won
- vs Rafael Jodar · 2026-10-17Lost
- vs Tommy Paul · 2026-10-16Won
- vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · 2026-10-14Won
- vs Dalibor Svrcina · 2026-10-12Won
Carlos Alcaraz
- Ranking
- #3 (seed 2WC)
- Elo
- 1956
- Indoor hard 2026
- 4–0
- Matches, last 14 days
- 3
- Days since last match
- 0
Last 10: 9W – 1L
- vs Tommy Paul · 2026-10-30Won
- vs Nikoloz Basilashvili · 2026-10-29Won
- vs Karen Khachanov · 2026-10-27Won
- vs Zizou Bergs · 2026-10-12Lost
- vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Jiri Lehecka · 2026-10-06Won
- vs Jaume Antoni Munar Clar · 2026-10-05Won
- vs Denis Shapovalov · 2026-10-04Won
- vs Matteo Arnaldi · 2026-10-03Won
- vs Alex Michelsen · 2026-10-01Won
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Daniil Medvedev 3–6 Carlos Alcaraz. On indoor hard: 2–3.
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Medvedev | Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 61.2% | 65.6% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 75.0% | 70.8% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 50.7% | 55.6% |
| Break points saved | 63.4% | 63.3% |
| Break points converted | 42.8% | 42.7% |
| Ace rate | 10.2% | 5.0% |
| Double-fault rate | 4.9% | 3.1% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
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