Matteo Berrettini vs Alex De Minaur
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Fri 30 Oct, 19:00 UTC
Alex De Minaur: In formAlex De Minaur: Top 10
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Model vs. market
Matteo Berrettinimodel 26% · market 33%
Alex De Minaurmodel 74% · market 67%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3%) removed.
- Matteo Berrettini has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Alex De Minaur has won 8 of the last 10 matches.
- Alex De Minaur is 8–0 on i.hard in 2026.
- Matteo Berrettini leads the head-to-head 3–2.
- The model rates Alex De Minaur 7 points higher than the market does.
Matteo Berrettini
- Ranking
- #48
- Elo
- 1643
- Indoor hard 2026
- 2–1
- Matches, last 14 days
- 3
- Days since last match
- 0
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Flavio Cobolli · 2026-10-29Won
- vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry · 2026-10-26Won
- vs Kyrian Jacquet · 2026-10-20Lost
- vs Brandon Nakashima · 2026-10-09Lost
- vs Aleksandar Kovacevic · 2026-10-07Won
- vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo · 2026-10-03Lost
- vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Mariano Navone · 2026-09-02Lost
- vs Stan Wawrinka · 2026-08-31Won
- vs Jiri Lehecka · 2026-08-15Lost
Alex De Minaur
- Ranking
- #10 (seed 5)
- Elo
- 1826
- Indoor hard 2026
- 8–0
- Matches, last 14 days
- 3
- Days since last match
- 1
Last 10: 8W – 2L
- vs Learner Tien · 2026-10-28Won
- vs Tomas Machac · 2026-10-26Won
- vs Alexander Zverev · 2026-10-15Lost
- vs Karen Khachanov · 2026-10-13Won
- vs Rei Sakamoto · 2026-10-11Won
- vs Novak Djokovic · 2026-10-06Lost
- vs Hubert Hurkacz · 2026-10-05Won
- vs Andrey Rublev · 2026-10-04Won
- vs Quentin Halys · 2026-10-03Won
- vs Mariano Navone · 2026-10-01Won
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Matteo Berrettini 3–2 Alex De Minaur. On indoor hard: 1–1.
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Berrettini | De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 63.4% | 58.3% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 77.5% | 70.6% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 53.5% | 53.8% |
| Break points saved | 68.1% | 61.2% |
| Break points converted | 38.3% | 42.8% |
| Ace rate | 11.6% | 4.9% |
| Double-fault rate | 2.4% | 3.5% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
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