Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Thu 29 Oct, 12:30 UTC
Daniil Medvedev: In formCameron Norrie: ColdDaniil Medvedev: BusyDaniil Medvedev: Top 10
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Result
Daniil Medvedev won 4-6 6-3 7-6(1). The model had Daniil Medvedev at 75%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Cameron Norriemodel 25% · market 18%
Daniil Medvedevmodel 75% · market 82%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (2.8%) removed.
- Cameron Norrie has won 4 of the last 10 matches.
- Daniil Medvedev has won 9 of the last 10 matches.
- Cameron Norrie is 3–2 on i.hard in 2026.
- Daniil Medvedev is 5–1 on i.hard in 2026.
- Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head 5–1.
- Daniil Medvedev has played 8 matches in the last 14 days.
- The model rates Cameron Norrie 7 points higher than the market does.
Cameron Norrie
- Ranking
- #41
- Elo
- 1638
- Indoor hard 2026
- 3–2
- Matches, last 14 days
- 2
- Days since last match
- 2
Last 10: 4W – 6L
- vs Francisco Cerundolo · 2026-10-27Won
- vs Benjamin Bonzi · 2026-10-20Lost
- vs Dalibor Svrcina · 2026-10-08Lost
- vs Alexander Zverev · 2026-10-01Lost
- vs Luca Van Assche · 2026-08-30Lost
- vs Alexander Zverev · 2026-08-15Lost
- vs Dino Prizmic · 2026-08-13Won
- vs Arthur Fils · 2026-08-08Lost
- vs Alex De Minaur · 2026-08-06Won
- vs Ignacio Buse · 2026-08-05Won
Daniil Medvedev
- Ranking
- #5 (seed 3)
- Elo
- 1827
- Indoor hard 2026
- 5–1
- Matches, last 14 days
- 8
- Days since last match
- 0
Last 10: 9W – 1L
- vs Daniel Merida Aguilar · 2026-10-28Won
- vs Nikoloz Basilashvili · 2026-10-25Won
- vs Alexander Bublik · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Terence Atmane · 2026-10-23Won
- vs Sho Shimabukuro · 2026-10-22Won
- vs Rafael Jodar · 2026-10-17Lost
- vs Tommy Paul · 2026-10-16Won
- vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · 2026-10-14Won
- vs Dalibor Svrcina · 2026-10-12Won
- vs Jan-Lennard Struff · 2026-10-10Won
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Cameron Norrie 1–5 Daniil Medvedev. On indoor hard: 0–4.
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Norrie | Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 64.6% | 61.2% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 70.2% | 75.0% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 50.7% | 50.7% |
| Break points saved | 63.4% | 63.4% |
| Break points converted | 42.3% | 42.8% |
| Ace rate | 6.0% | 10.2% |
| Double-fault rate | 3.6% | 4.9% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.