Learner Tien vs Alex De Minaur
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Wed 28 Oct, 19:35 UTC
Model vs marketAlex De Minaur: Top 10
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Result
Alex De Minaur won 6-4 6-2. The model had Alex De Minaur at 61%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Learner Tienmodel 39% · market 49%
Alex De Minaurmodel 61% · market 51%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (2.9%) removed.
- Learner Tien has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Alex De Minaur has won 8 of the last 10 matches.
- Learner Tien is 3–3 on i.hard in 2026.
- Alex De Minaur is 7–0 on i.hard in 2026.
- The model rates Alex De Minaur 10 points higher than the market does.
Learner Tien
- Ranking
- #18
- Elo
- 1749
- Indoor hard 2026
- 3–3
- Matches, last 14 days
- 1
- Days since last match
- 2
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Luca Van Assche · 2026-10-26Won
- vs Casper Ruud · 2026-10-12Lost
- vs Zachary Svajda · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Hubert Hurkacz · 2026-10-01Lost
- vs Alexander Zverev · 2026-09-27Lost
- vs Flavio Cobolli · 2026-09-26Won
- vs Jiri Lehecka · 2026-09-19Lost
- vs Jakub Mensik · 2026-09-18Won
- vs Karen Khachanov · 2026-09-07Lost
- vs Jakub Mensik · 2026-09-05Won
Alex De Minaur
- Ranking
- #10 (seed 5)
- Elo
- 1826
- Indoor hard 2026
- 7–0
- Matches, last 14 days
- 2
- Days since last match
- 2
Last 10: 8W – 2L
- vs Tomas Machac · 2026-10-26Won
- vs Alexander Zverev · 2026-10-15Lost
- vs Karen Khachanov · 2026-10-13Won
- vs Rei Sakamoto · 2026-10-11Won
- vs Novak Djokovic · 2026-10-06Lost
- vs Hubert Hurkacz · 2026-10-05Won
- vs Andrey Rublev · 2026-10-04Won
- vs Quentin Halys · 2026-10-03Won
- vs Mariano Navone · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Alexander Zverev · 2026-09-26Won
Head-to-head
No head-to-head data available.
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Tien | De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 62.2% | 58.3% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 68.8% | 70.6% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 51.6% | 53.8% |
| Break points saved | 61.6% | 61.2% |
| Break points converted | 45.3% | 42.8% |
| Ace rate | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Double-fault rate | 4.4% | 3.5% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.