Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Mon 26 Oct, 18:00 UTC
Luciano Darderi: ColdModel vs market
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Result
Luciano Darderi won 7-5 6-2. The model had Luciano Darderi at 58%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Luciano Darderimodel 58% · market 49%
Matteo Arnaldimodel 42% · market 51%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.4%) removed.
- Luciano Darderi has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Matteo Arnaldi has won 3 of the last 10 matches.
- The model rates Luciano Darderi 9 points higher than the market does.
Luciano Darderi
- Ranking
- #23
- Elo
- 1645
- Indoor hard 2026
- 0–1
- Matches, last 14 days
- 1
- Days since last match
- 5
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs James Duckworth · 2026-10-21Lost
- vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · 2026-10-10Lost
- vs Kyrian Jacquet · 2026-10-02Lost
- vs Casper Ruud · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Alexander Zverev · 2026-09-07Lost
- vs Dane Sweeny · 2026-09-05Won
- vs Dalibor Svrcina · 2026-09-03Won
- vs Harry Wendelken · 2026-08-31Won
- vs Botic Van De Zandschulp · 2026-08-26Lost
- vs Mattia Bellucci · 2026-08-25Won
Matteo Arnaldi
- Ranking
- #36
- Elo
- 1587
- Indoor hard 2026
- 0–1
- Matches, last 14 days
- 1
- Days since last match
- 7
Last 10: 3W – 7L
- vs Lorenzo Musetti · 2026-10-19Lost
- vs Taylor Fritz · 2026-10-10Lost
- vs Bernard Tomic · 2026-10-08Won
- vs Carlos Alcaraz · 2026-10-03Lost
- vs Rei Sakamoto · 2026-09-30Won
- vs James Duckworth · 2026-08-31Lost
- vs Martin Landaluce · 2026-08-15Lost
- vs Tallon Griekspoor · 2026-08-07Lost
- vs Fabian Marozsan · 2026-08-05Won
- vs Lorenzo Musetti · 2026-07-27Lost
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Darderi | Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 56.8% | 58.8% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 70.7% | 68.6% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 51.6% | 49.9% |
| Break points saved | 59.7% | 60.6% |
| Break points converted | 41.9% | 42.3% |
| Ace rate | 6.6% | 5.8% |
| Double-fault rate | 3.3% | 4.0% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
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