Luca Van Assche vs Learner Tien
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Mon 26 Oct, 19:00 UTC
Toss-upModel vs market
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Result
Learner Tien won 6-3 6-1. The model had Learner Tien at 51%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Luca Van Asschemodel 49% · market 29%
Learner Tienmodel 51% · market 71%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.4%) removed.
- Luca Van Assche has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Learner Tien has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Luca Van Assche is 14–2 on i.hard in 2026.
- Learner Tien is 2–3 on i.hard in 2026.
- The model rates Luca Van Assche 20 points higher than the market does.
Luca Van Assche
- Ranking
- #46
- Elo
- 1745
- Indoor hard 2026
- 14–2
- Matches, last 14 days
- 3
- Days since last match
- 3
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Lorenzo Musetti · 2026-10-23Lost
- vs Valentin Vacherot · 2026-10-22Won
- vs Clement Tabur · 2026-10-20Won
- vs Bu Yunchaokete · 2026-10-08Lost
- vs Arthur Fils · 2026-09-30Lost
- vs Denis Shapovalov · 2026-09-02Lost
- vs Cameron Norrie · 2026-08-30Won
- vs Aleksandar Kovacevic · 2026-08-25Lost
- vs Stefanos Sakellaridis · 2026-08-23Won
- vs Hugo Gaston · 2026-08-22Won
Learner Tien
- Ranking
- #18
- Elo
- 1749
- Indoor hard 2026
- 2–3
- Matches, last 14 days
- 1
- Days since last match
- 14
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Casper Ruud · 2026-10-12Lost
- vs Zachary Svajda · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Hubert Hurkacz · 2026-10-01Lost
- vs Alexander Zverev · 2026-09-27Lost
- vs Flavio Cobolli · 2026-09-26Won
- vs Jiri Lehecka · 2026-09-19Lost
- vs Jakub Mensik · 2026-09-18Won
- vs Karen Khachanov · 2026-09-07Lost
- vs Jakub Mensik · 2026-09-05Won
- vs Gael Monfils · 2026-09-03Won
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Van Assche | Tien | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 61.4% | 62.2% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 67.9% | 68.8% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 50.2% | 51.7% |
| Break points saved | 60.1% | 61.5% |
| Break points converted | 43.8% | 45.3% |
| Ace rate | 4.6% | 4.9% |
| Double-fault rate | 4.2% | 4.4% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
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