Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Wed 28 Oct, 14:05 UTC
Toss-upLorenzo Musetti: In formLorenzo Musetti: BusyFrances Tiafoe: Top 10
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Result
Lorenzo Musetti won 7-6(6) 7-5. The model had Frances Tiafoe at 54%, so this one went the other way.
Model vs. market
Lorenzo Musettimodel 46% · market 50%
Frances Tiafoemodel 54% · market 50%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.4%) removed.
- Lorenzo Musetti has won 7 of the last 10 matches.
- Frances Tiafoe has won 7 of the last 10 matches.
- Lorenzo Musetti is 5–0 on i.hard in 2026.
- Frances Tiafoe leads the head-to-head 4–3.
- Lorenzo Musetti has played 5 matches in the last 14 days.
Lorenzo Musetti
- Ranking
- #26
- Elo
- 1767
- Indoor hard 2026
- 5–0
- Matches, last 14 days
- 5
- Days since last match
- 3
Last 10: 7W – 3L
- vs Taylor Fritz · 2026-10-25Won
- vs Flavio Cobolli · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Luca Van Assche · 2026-10-23Won
- vs Moise Kouame · 2026-10-21Won
- vs Matteo Arnaldi · 2026-10-19Won
- vs Yi Zhou · 2026-10-09Lost
- vs Dane Sweeny · 2026-09-03Lost
- vs Arthur Fery · 2026-09-01Won
- vs Frances Tiafoe · 2026-08-21Lost
- vs Jaime Faria · 2026-08-19Won
Frances Tiafoe
- Ranking
- #9 (seed 6)
- Elo
- 1798
- Indoor hard 2026
- 1–1
- Matches, last 14 days
- 0
- Days since last match
- 17
Last 10: 7W – 3L
- vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 2026-10-11Lost
- vs Yannick Hanfmann · 2026-10-09Won
- vs Arthur Fils · 2026-10-02Lost
- vs Kei Nishikori · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Ben Shelton · 2026-09-11Lost
- vs Alex Michelsen · 2026-09-08Won
- vs Daniil Medvedev · 2026-09-06Won
- vs Valentin Vacherot · 2026-09-04Won
- vs Rei Sakamoto · 2026-09-02Won
- vs Martin Damm · 2026-08-31Won
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Lorenzo Musetti 3–4 Frances Tiafoe. On indoor hard: 1–3.
All 7 meetings with scores and stats →Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Musetti | Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 64.3% | 60.2% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 69.3% | 72.8% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 52.8% | 52.0% |
| Break points saved | 60.0% | 62.7% |
| Break points converted | 41.9% | 38.8% |
| Ace rate | 4.7% | 8.4% |
| Double-fault rate | 2.8% | 3.0% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.