Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Wed 28 Oct, 12:30 UTC
Daniil Medvedev: In formModel vs marketDaniil Medvedev: BusyDaniil Medvedev: Top 10
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Result
Daniil Medvedev won 7-6(5) 6-1. The model had Daniil Medvedev at 62%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Daniel Merida Aguilarmodel 38% · market 19%
Daniil Medvedevmodel 62% · market 82%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.8%) removed.
- Daniel Merida Aguilar has won 6 of the last 10 matches.
- Daniil Medvedev has won 8 of the last 10 matches.
- Daniil Medvedev is 4–1 on i.hard in 2026.
- Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head 1–0.
- Daniil Medvedev has played 7 matches in the last 14 days.
- The model rates Daniel Merida Aguilar 20 points higher than the market does.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
- Ranking
- #42
- Elo
- 1742
- Indoor hard 2026
- 0–1
- Matches, last 14 days
- 0
- Days since last match
- 20
Last 10: 6W – 4L
- vs Botic Van De Zandschulp · 2026-10-08Lost
- vs Alejandro Tabilo · 2026-09-19Won
- vs Alex Michelsen · 2026-09-04Lost
- vs Andrey Rublev · 2026-09-02Won
- vs Marton Fucsovics · 2026-08-30Won
- vs Taylor Fritz · 2026-08-18Lost
- vs Zizou Bergs · 2026-08-16Won
- vs Marin Cilic · 2026-08-14Won
- vs Learner Tien · 2026-08-11Lost
- vs Tallon Griekspoor · 2026-08-09Won
Daniil Medvedev
- Ranking
- #5 (seed 3)
- Elo
- 1827
- Indoor hard 2026
- 4–1
- Matches, last 14 days
- 7
- Days since last match
- 3
Last 10: 8W – 2L
- vs Nikoloz Basilashvili · 2026-10-25Won
- vs Alexander Bublik · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Terence Atmane · 2026-10-23Won
- vs Sho Shimabukuro · 2026-10-22Won
- vs Rafael Jodar · 2026-10-17Lost
- vs Tommy Paul · 2026-10-16Won
- vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · 2026-10-14Won
- vs Dalibor Svrcina · 2026-10-12Won
- vs Jan-Lennard Struff · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Novak Djokovic · 2026-10-05Lost
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Daniel Merida Aguilar 0–1 Daniil Medvedev.
All 1 meetings with scores and stats →Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Aguilar | Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 64.9% | 61.2% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 65.6% | 75.0% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 47.0% | 50.7% |
| Break points saved | 57.5% | 63.4% |
| Break points converted | 46.2% | 42.7% |
| Ace rate | 2.8% | 10.2% |
| Double-fault rate | 5.1% | 4.9% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.