Tomas Machac vs Alex De Minaur
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Mon 26 Oct, 14:00 UTC
Tomas Machac: BusyAlex De Minaur: Top 10
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Result
Alex De Minaur won 1-6 6-4 6-3. The model had Alex De Minaur at 77%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Tomas Machacmodel 23% · market 28%
Alex De Minaurmodel 77% · market 72%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.4%) removed.
- Tomas Machac has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Alex De Minaur has won 8 of the last 10 matches.
- Tomas Machac is 3–2 on i.hard in 2026.
- Alex De Minaur is 6–0 on i.hard in 2026.
- Alex De Minaur leads the head-to-head 1–0.
- Tomas Machac has played 6 matches in the last 14 days.
- The model rates Alex De Minaur 6 points higher than the market does.
Tomas Machac
- Ranking
- #72 (seed q)
- Elo
- 1612
- Indoor hard 2026
- 3–2
- Matches, last 14 days
- 6
- Days since last match
- 2
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Corentin Moutet · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Karen Khachanov · 2026-10-22Lost
- vs Zangar Nurlanuly · 2026-10-21Won
- vs Liam Draxl · 2026-10-16Lost
- vs Aleksandar Vukic · 2026-10-15Won
- vs Alexandre Muller · 2026-10-13Won
- vs Alexander Bublik · 2026-10-09Lost
- vs Zhizhen Zhang · 2026-10-07Won
- vs Alex Molcan · 2026-09-30Lost
- vs Arthur Gea · 2026-09-29Lost
Alex De Minaur
- Ranking
- #8 (seed 5)
- Elo
- 1826
- Indoor hard 2026
- 6–0
- Matches, last 14 days
- 3
- Days since last match
- 10
Last 10: 8W – 2L
- vs Alexander Zverev · 2026-10-15Lost
- vs Karen Khachanov · 2026-10-13Won
- vs Rei Sakamoto · 2026-10-11Won
- vs Novak Djokovic · 2026-10-06Lost
- vs Hubert Hurkacz · 2026-10-05Won
- vs Andrey Rublev · 2026-10-04Won
- vs Quentin Halys · 2026-10-03Won
- vs Mariano Navone · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Alexander Zverev · 2026-09-26Won
- vs Kamil Majchrzak · 2026-09-20Won
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Machac | De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 62.0% | 58.3% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 70.8% | 70.6% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 53.8% | 53.8% |
| Break points saved | 61.7% | 61.2% |
| Break points converted | 43.0% | 42.8% |
| Ace rate | 6.5% | 4.9% |
| Double-fault rate | 2.9% | 3.5% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
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