Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno-Busta
Indoor hard · Best of 3 · Sat 24 Oct, 09:00 UTC
Toss-upModel vs marketJacob Fearnley: Busy
Who wins the Erste Bank Open? Title chances →Result
Jacob Fearnley won 6-4 3-6 6-3. The model had Pablo Carreno-Busta at 53%, so this one went the other way.
Model vs. market
Jacob Fearnleymodel 47% · market 57%
Pablo Carreno-Bustamodel 53% · market 43%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (4.3%) removed.
- Jacob Fearnley has won 6 of the last 10 matches.
- Pablo Carreno-Busta has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Jacob Fearnley is 2–3 on i.hard in 2026.
- Jacob Fearnley has played 7 matches in the last 14 days.
- The model rates Pablo Carreno-Busta 10 points higher than the market does.
Jacob Fearnley
- Ranking
- #87
- Elo
- 1636
- Indoor hard 2026
- 2–3
- Matches, last 14 days
- 7
- Days since last match
- 2
Last 10: 6W – 4L
- vs Clement Chidekh · 2026-10-21Lost
- vs Hugo Gaston · 2026-10-20Won
- vs Damir Dzumhur · 2026-10-18Lost
- vs Luca Nardi · 2026-10-17Won
- vs Maxim Mrva · 2026-10-16Won
- vs Jan Kumstat · 2026-10-15Won
- vs George Loffhagen · 2026-10-13Won
- vs Inaki Montes-De La Torre · 2026-10-01Lost
- vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez · 2026-09-30Won
- vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry · 2026-09-02Lost
Pablo Carreno-Busta
- Ranking
- #74
- Elo
- 1657
- Indoor hard 2026
- 1–2
- Matches, last 14 days
- 2
- Days since last match
- 11
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Felix Auger Aliassime · 2026-10-12Lost
- vs Alejandro Tabilo · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Mariano Navone · 2026-10-08Won
- vs Daniil Medvedev · 2026-10-02Lost
- vs Adrian Mannarino · 2026-09-29Won
- vs Yi Zhou · 2026-09-28Won
- vs Jiri Lehecka · 2026-08-30Lost
- vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo · 2026-08-23Lost
- vs Andrey Rublev · 2026-08-16Lost
- vs Tomas Machac · 2026-08-14Won
Head-to-head
No head-to-head data available.
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Fearnley | Carreno-Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 61.3% | 64.0% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 72.3% | 69.6% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 49.1% | 51.9% |
| Break points saved | 59.8% | 60.5% |
| Break points converted | 43.6% | 41.5% |
| Ace rate | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| Double-fault rate | 7.0% | 2.5% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.