Talia Gibson vs Ashlyn Krueger
Hard · Best of 3 · Fri 23 Oct, 01:00 UTC
Toss-upAshlyn Krueger: In formModel vs marketAshlyn Krueger: Busy
Who wins the Japan Open? Title chances →Result
Ashlyn Krueger won 6-1 6-3. The model had Talia Gibson at 54%, so this one went the other way.
Model vs. market
Talia Gibsonmodel 54% · market 41%
Ashlyn Kruegermodel 46% · market 59%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.4%) removed.
- Talia Gibson has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Ashlyn Krueger has won 6 of the last 10 matches.
- Talia Gibson is 27–15 on hard in 2026.
- Ashlyn Krueger is 14–14 on hard in 2026.
- Ashlyn Krueger has played 7 matches in the last 14 days.
- The model rates Talia Gibson 13 points higher than the market does.
Talia Gibson
- Ranking
- #42 (seed 4)
- Elo
- 1664
- Hard 2026
- 27–15
- Matches, last 14 days
- 3
- Days since last match
- 1
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Sinja Kraus · 2026-10-21Won
- vs Harriet Dart · 2026-10-19Won
- vs Sara Sorribes Tormo · 2026-10-10Lost
- vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich · 2026-09-30Lost
- vs Leylah Annie Fernandez · 2026-09-27Lost
- vs Maria Sakkari · 2026-09-25Won
- vs Viktoria Morvayova · 2026-09-24Won
- vs Fiona Ferro · 2026-09-21Won
- vs Donna Vekic · 2026-08-30Lost
- vs Lizette Cabrera · 2026-08-24Lost
Ashlyn Krueger
- Ranking
- #55
- Elo
- 1635
- Hard 2026
- 14–14
- Matches, last 14 days
- 7
- Days since last match
- 1
Last 10: 6W – 4L
- vs Lanlana Tararudee · 2026-10-21Won
- vs Janice Tjen · 2026-10-19Won
- vs Iga Swiatek · 2026-10-15Lost
- vs Lanlana Tararudee · 2026-10-14Won
- vs Shuai Zhang · 2026-10-13Won
- vs Yulia Putintseva · 2026-10-11Lost
- vs Taylah Preston · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Ann Li · 2026-10-03Lost
- vs Sofia Kenin · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Amanda Anisimova · 2026-08-31Lost
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Gibson | Krueger | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 63.5% | 64.4% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 66.4% | 63.7% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 47.2% | 44.5% |
| Break points saved | 55.8% | 55.1% |
| Break points converted | 45.2% | 45.2% |
| Ace rate | 5.4% | 4.5% |
| Double-fault rate | 5.2% | 6.3% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.