WTA Japan Open 2026: title chances
Tournament finished. Katerina Siniakova won the title (final result from our match tracking); the table below is the last simulation before the final. Updated 24 October at 20:05 UTC.
Results already played are fixed; every open match is decided by the Elo win probability. Model estimate, not a betting tip. 18+.
| Player | R2 | QF | SF | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katerina Siniakova · #86 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 54% |
| Ashlyn Krueger · #55 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 46% |
| Ann Li [1] · #25Out in SF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonia Ruzic · #91Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caty McNally · #59Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claire Liu (Q) · #95Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emerson Jones (Q) · #134Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ena Shibahara (WC) · #492Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harriet Dart (Q) · #117Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Himeno Sakatsume (WC) · #115Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Janice Tjen [6] · #46Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaitlin Quevedo · #79Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Katie Boulter [8] · #58Out in SF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kayla Day (LL) · #119Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lanlana Tararudee · #53Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lilli Tagger · #57Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Liudmila Samsonova [5] · #43Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Magda Linette · #77Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mai Hontama (WC) · #168Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mary Stoiana (Q) · #114Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maya Joint (Q) · #90Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Moyuka Uchijima (WC) · #121Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oleksandra Oliynykova [7] · #62Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paula Badosa Gibert · #61Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Peyton Stearns [2] · #37Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shuai Zhang · #85Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sinja Kraus (Q) · #76Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sofia Kenin (LL) · #126Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Talia Gibson [4] · #42Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tereza Valentova · #88Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Viktorija Golubic · #82Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zeynep Sonmez · #63Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
Columns show the chance to reach each stage. Percentages below 1% are shown as <1%.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
Title chances are the model's view of the draw. Our actual picks get a full written analysis in the free Discord, posted before each match.