Mary Stoiana vs Katerina Siniakova
Hard · Best of 3 · Fri 23 Oct, 05:30 UTC
Toss-upMary Stoiana: In formModel vs market
Who wins the Japan Open? Title chances →Result
Katerina Siniakova won 6-1 6-2. The model had Mary Stoiana at 54%, so this one went the other way.
Model vs. market
Mary Stoianamodel 54% · market 32%
Katerina Siniakovamodel 46% · market 68%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.4%) removed.
- Mary Stoiana has won 7 of the last 10 matches.
- Katerina Siniakova has won 4 of the last 10 matches.
- Mary Stoiana is 23–15 on hard in 2026.
- Katerina Siniakova is 11–12 on hard in 2026.
- The model rates Mary Stoiana 22 points higher than the market does.
Mary Stoiana
- Ranking
- #114 (seed q)
- Elo
- 1693
- Hard 2026
- 23–15
- Matches, last 14 days
- 4
- Days since last match
- 0
Last 10: 7W – 3L
- vs Moyuka Uchijima · 2026-10-22Won
- vs Oleksandra Oliynykova · 2026-10-20Won
- vs Sayaka Ishii · 2026-10-18Won
- vs Rinko Matsuda · 2026-10-17Won
- vs Julieta Pareja · 2026-10-01Lost
- vs Hanna Chang · 2026-09-30Won
- vs Paula Badosa Gibert · 2026-09-18Lost
- vs Dominika Salkova · 2026-09-17Won
- vs Claire Liu · 2026-09-16Won
- vs Julia Riera · 2026-09-09Lost
Katerina Siniakova
- Ranking
- #86
- Elo
- 1665
- Hard 2026
- 11–12
- Matches, last 14 days
- 2
- Days since last match
- 2
Last 10: 4W – 6L
- vs Peyton Stearns · 2026-10-20Won
- vs Liudmila Samsonova · 2026-10-13Lost
- vs Elina Svitolina · 2026-10-03Lost
- vs Magda Linette · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Naomi Osaka · 2026-09-03Lost
- vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto · 2026-08-31Won
- vs Madison Keys · 2026-08-18Lost
- vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro · 2026-08-16Won
- vs Kamilla Rakhimova · 2026-08-04Lost
- vs Nikola Bartunkova · 2026-07-01Lost
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Stoiana | Siniakova | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 62.6% | 61.7% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 61.6% | 63.1% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 47.3% | 44.7% |
| Break points saved | 53.9% | 54.0% |
| Break points converted | 49.6% | 47.1% |
| Ace rate | 2.0% | 3.1% |
| Double-fault rate | 4.1% | 6.2% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
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