ATP Shanghai Rolex Masters 2026: title chances
Tournament finished. The final result is not recorded in our data yet, so the table shows the last simulation before the final. Updated 18 October at 05:30 UTC.
Results already played are fixed; every open match is decided by the Elo win probability. Model estimate, not a betting tip. 18+.
| Player | R2 | R3 | R4 | QF | SF | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Jodar [12] · #13 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 58% |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina [25] · #26 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 42% |
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo · #52Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrian Mannarino · #83Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Tabilo [29] · #30Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic · #81Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex De Minaur [9] · #9Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Michelsen [31] · #35Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Molcan · #84Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Blockx [27] · #28Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Bublik [19] · #22Out in R4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Zverev [1] · #2Out in SF | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrey Rublev [23] · #23Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Fery · #37Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Fils [8] · #11Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Gea · #56Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ben Shelton [3] · #4Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bernard Tomic (Q) · #185Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Botic Van De Zandschulp · #41Out in R4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Nakashima [16] · #19Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bu Yunchaokete (WC) · #93Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cameron Norrie · #40Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli · #77Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Alcaraz [2] · #3Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Casper Ruud [20] · #24Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chak Lam Coleman Wong (Q) · #101Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dalibor Svrcina (Q) · #126Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Altmaier · #67Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Merida Aguilar · #44Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniil Medvedev [5] · #6Out in SF | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabian Marozsan · #63Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta · #69Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federico Cina (Q) · #147Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felix Auger Aliassime [4] · #5Out in R4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Flavio Cobolli [6] · #7Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Frances Tiafoe [7] · #10Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francisco Cerundolo [21] · #20Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hamad Medjedovic · #78Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Holger Rune (PR) · #195Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hubert Hurkacz · #34Out in R4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignacio Buse [32] · #36Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ilia Simakin (Q) · #154Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jaime Faria · #60Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jakub Mensik [13] · #15Out in R4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| James Duckworth · #64Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan-Lennard Struff · #59Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jaume Antoni Munar Clar · #49Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jenson Brooksby · #102Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jiri Lehecka [22] · #16Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo · #55Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kamil Majchrzak · #70Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Karen Khachanov [26] · #27Out in R4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kimmer Coppejans (Q) · #232Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Learner Tien [14] · #17Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lorenzo Musetti [24] · #25Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Van Assche · #45Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luciano Darderi [18] · #21Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Trungelliti · #90Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Giron · #88Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mariano Navone · #47Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marin Cilic · #80Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Landaluce · #73Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Arnaldi · #38Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Berrettini · #46Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mattia Bellucci (Q) · #86Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michael Zheng (LL) · #94Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miomir Kecmanovic · #61Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolas Mejia (Q) · #119Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili (Q) · #124Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Novak Djokovic [10] · #8Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nuno Borges · #51Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Carreno-Busta · #65Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pavel Kotov (Q) · #187Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Quentin Halys · #48Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rei Sakamoto (Q) · #137Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rinky Hijikata · #85Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roman Safiullin (Q) · #79Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Baez · #53Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sho Shimabukuro (WC) · #109Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas · #43Out in R4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tallon Griekspoor · #58Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Taylor Fritz [11] · #12Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante · #54Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomas Machac · #75Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry [28] · #31Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tommy Paul [15] · #18Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ugo Humbert [30] · #32Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valentin Royer · #105Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valentin Vacherot [17] · #14Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vit Kopriva · #68Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yannick Hanfmann · #57Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yi Zhou (WC) · #277Out in R3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yibing Wu (WC) · #113Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zachary Svajda · #82Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zhizhen Zhang (WC) · #166Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zizou Bergs · #39Out in R4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Columns show the chance to reach each stage. Percentages below 1% are shown as <1%.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
Title chances are the model's view of the draw. Our actual picks get a full written analysis in the free Discord, posted before each match.