ATP Almaty Open 2026: title chances
Tournament finished. Daniil Medvedev won the title (final result from our match tracking); the table below is the last simulation before the final. Updated 25 October at 05:30 UTC.
Results already played are fixed; every open match is decided by the Elo win probability. Model estimate, not a betting tip. 18+.
| Player | R2 | QF | SF | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev [1] · #5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 69% |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili (Q) · #128 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 31% |
| Adrian Mannarino · #79Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic · #82Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aleksandar Vukic · #116Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Bublik [3] · #19Out in SF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrey Rublev [4] · #22Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabian Marozsan · #64Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta · #71Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| James Duckworth · #73Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Karen Khachanov [5] · #25Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luciano Darderi [2] · #23Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marin Cilic · #84Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mattia Bellucci · #68Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mikhail Kukushkin (WC) · #389Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miomir Kecmanovic · #57Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rei Sakamoto (Q) · #124Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rinky Hijikata · #86Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roman Safiullin (Q) · #70Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sho Shimabukuro · #109Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefanos Sakellaridis (Q) · #133Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas [7] · #39Out in SF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Terence Atmane · #98Out in QF | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante [8] · #50Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Timofey Skatov (WC) · #201Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomas Machac · #72Out in R2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry [6] · #29Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zangar Nurlanuly (WC)Out in R1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Columns show the chance to reach each stage. Percentages below 1% are shown as <1%.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
Title chances are the model's view of the draw. Our actual picks get a full written analysis in the free Discord, posted before each match.