Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Annie Fernandez
Hard · Best of 3 · Fri 30 Oct, 05:45 UTC
Elena Rybakina: In formLeylah Annie Fernandez: In formElena Rybakina: BusyLeylah Annie Fernandez: BusyElena Rybakina: Top 10
Who wins the Toray Pan Pacific Open? Title chances →Model vs. market
Elena Rybakinamodel 80% · market 75%
Leylah Annie Fernandezmodel 20% · market 25%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (2.9%) removed.
- Elena Rybakina has won 9 of the last 10 matches.
- Leylah Annie Fernandez has won 8 of the last 10 matches.
- Elena Rybakina is 41–8 on hard in 2026.
- Leylah Annie Fernandez is 16–15 on hard in 2026.
- Elena Rybakina leads the head-to-head 4–2.
- Elena Rybakina has played 5 matches in the last 14 days.
- Leylah Annie Fernandez has played 8 matches in the last 14 days.
- The model rates Elena Rybakina 5 points higher than the market does.
Elena Rybakina
- Ranking
- #1 (seed 1)
- Elo
- 2019
- Hard 2026
- 41–8
- Matches, last 14 days
- 5
- Days since last match
- 0
Last 10: 9W – 1L
- vs Yulia Putintseva · 2026-10-29Won
- vs Leylah Annie Fernandez · 2026-10-25Won
- vs Diana Shnaider · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Katarzyna Kawa · 2026-10-23Won
- vs Polina Kudermetova · 2026-10-22Won
- vs Alina Charaeva · 2026-10-03Lost
- vs Aryna Sabalenka · 2026-09-12Won
- vs Cori Gauff · 2026-09-10Won
- vs Qinwen Zheng · 2026-09-09Won
- vs Naomi Osaka · 2026-09-07Won
Leylah Annie Fernandez
- Ranking
- #23
- Elo
- 1777
- Hard 2026
- 16–15
- Matches, last 14 days
- 8
- Days since last match
- 0
Last 10: 8W – 2L
- vs Elise Mertens · 2026-10-29Won
- vs Himeno Sakatsume · 2026-10-27Won
- vs Elena Rybakina · 2026-10-25Lost
- vs Marie Bouzkova · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Ekaterina Alexandrova · 2026-10-23Won
- vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich · 2026-10-21Won
- vs Elise Mertens · 2026-10-19Won
- vs Jelena Ostapenko · 2026-10-15Lost
- vs Han Shi · 2026-10-14Won
- vs Ekaterina Alexandrova · 2026-10-12Won
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Elena Rybakina 4–2 Leylah Annie Fernandez. On hard: 3–2.
All 6 meetings with scores and stats →Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Rybakina | Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 58.7% | 62.7% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 70.5% | 64.7% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 49.4% | 47.4% |
| Break points saved | 60.3% | 58.1% |
| Break points converted | 45.2% | 47.0% |
| Ace rate | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Double-fault rate | 4.2% | 6.2% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.