Naomi Osaka vs Mia Pohankova
Hard · Best of 3 · Thu 29 Oct, 05:30 UTC
Model vs marketNaomi Osaka: Home
Who wins the Toray Pan Pacific Open? Title chances →Result
Mia Pohankova won 6-3 7-5. The model had Naomi Osaka at 69%, so this one went the other way.
Model vs. market
Naomi Osakamodel 69% · market 77%
Mia Pohankovamodel 31% · market 23%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (2.9%) removed.
- Naomi Osaka has won 7 of the last 10 matches.
- Mia Pohankova has won 7 of the last 10 matches.
- Naomi Osaka is 16–8 on hard in 2026.
- Mia Pohankova is 10–4 on hard in 2026.
- Naomi Osaka is playing at home.
- The model rates Mia Pohankova 9 points higher than the market does.
Naomi Osaka
- Ranking
- #18 (seed 7)
- Elo
- 1857
- Hard 2026
- 16–8
- Matches, last 14 days
- 1
- Days since last match
- 1
- Home
- Yes
Last 10: 7W – 3L
- vs Jasmine Paolini · 2026-10-27Won
- vs Karolina Muchova · 2026-10-06Lost
- vs Sara Bejlek · 2026-10-04Won
- vs Maria Timofeeva · 2026-10-02Won
- vs Elena Rybakina · 2026-09-07Lost
- vs Elise Mertens · 2026-09-05Won
- vs Katerina Siniakova · 2026-09-03Won
- vs Anastasia Zakharova · 2026-08-31Won
- vs Elena Rybakina · 2026-08-11Lost
- vs Leylah Annie Fernandez · 2026-08-09Won
Mia Pohankova
- Ranking
- #144 (seed WC)
- Elo
- 1721
- Hard 2026
- 10–4
- Matches, last 14 days
- 2
- Days since last match
- 1
Last 10: 7W – 3L
- vs Tereza Valentova · 2026-10-27Won
- vs Maria Sakkari · 2026-10-15Lost
- vs Xiyu Wang · 2026-10-13Won
- vs Anna Bondar · 2026-10-12Won
- vs Maria Timofeeva · 2026-09-26Lost
- vs Katie Swan · 2026-09-25Won
- vs Veronika Podrez · 2026-09-24Won
- vs Francisca Jorge · 2026-09-22Won
- vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson · 2026-09-19Lost
- vs Kylie Collins · 2026-09-18Won
Head-to-head
No head-to-head data available.
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Osaka | Pohankova | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 56.6% | 58.4% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 71.8% | 67.5% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 48.4% | 47.2% |
| Break points saved | 58.6% | 59.7% |
| Break points converted | 45.8% | 47.5% |
| Ace rate | 8.6% | 5.9% |
| Double-fault rate | 3.6% | 4.3% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.