Maria Timofeeva vs Xinran Sun
Hard · Best of 3 · Thu 29 Oct, 06:30 UTC
Result
Xinran Sun won 6-3 4-6 7-6(3). The model had Maria Timofeeva at 57%, so this one went the other way.
Model vs. market
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.4%) removed. At least one player has few tracked matches, so the rating leans on the ranking.
- Maria Timofeeva has won 8 of the last 10 matches.
- Xinran Sun has won 6 of the last 10 matches.
- Maria Timofeeva is 17–12 on hard in 2026.
- Xinran Sun is 6–2 on hard in 2026.
- Xinran Sun is playing at home.
- The model rates Xinran Sun 7 points higher than the market does.
- At least one player has few tracked matches, so the model leans on ranking.
Maria Timofeeva
- Ranking
- #72 (seed 7)
- Elo
- 1742
- Hard 2026
- 17–12
- Matches, last 14 days
- 1
- Days since last match
- 2
Last 10: 8W – 2L
- vs Teodora Kostovic · 2026-10-26Won
- vs Naomi Osaka · 2026-10-02Lost
- vs Darja Vidmanova · 2026-09-30Won
- vs Reese Brantmeier · 2026-09-27Won
- vs Mia Pohankova · 2026-09-26Won
- vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson · 2026-09-25Won
- vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson · 2026-09-23Won
- vs Sofia Johnson · 2026-09-22Won
- vs Elise Mertens · 2026-09-03Lost
- vs Tamara Zidansek · 2026-08-31Won
Xinran Sun
- Ranking
- #405 (seed WC)
- Elo
- 1694
- Hard 2026
- 6–2
- Matches, last 14 days
- 1
- Days since last match
- 1
- Home
- Yes
Last 10: 6W – 4L
- vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew · 2026-10-27Won
- vs Cori Gauff · 2026-10-05Lost
- vs Cristina Bucsa · 2026-10-03Won
- vs Eva Lys · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Luna Vujovic · 2026-08-26Lost
- vs Mariia Masiianskaia · 2026-08-24Won
- vs Nadja Mladenovic · 2026-08-23Won
- vs Varvara Panshina · 2026-08-16Lost
- vs Elena Milovanovic · 2026-08-10Lost
- vs Anja Stankovic · 2026-08-09Won
Head-to-head
No head-to-head data available.
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Timofeeva | Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 65.8% | 59.3% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 60.5% | 61.0% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 45.5% | 46.3% |
| Break points saved | 52.9% | 49.4% |
| Break points converted | 50.2% | 52.2% |
| Ace rate | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| Double-fault rate | 5.3% | 4.3% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.