Leylah Annie Fernandez vs Elise Mertens
Hard · Best of 3 · Thu 29 Oct, 03:00 UTC
Result
Leylah Annie Fernandez won 6-2 7-6(8). The model had Leylah Annie Fernandez at 53%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (3.1%) removed.
- Leylah Annie Fernandez has won 7 of the last 10 matches.
- Elise Mertens has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Leylah Annie Fernandez is 15–15 on hard in 2026.
- Elise Mertens is 22–13 on hard in 2026.
- Head-to-head is level at 2–2.
- Leylah Annie Fernandez has played 8 matches in the last 14 days.
Leylah Annie Fernandez
- Ranking
- #23
- Elo
- 1777
- Hard 2026
- 15–15
- Matches, last 14 days
- 8
- Days since last match
- 1
Last 10: 7W – 3L
- vs Himeno Sakatsume · 2026-10-27Won
- vs Elena Rybakina · 2026-10-25Lost
- vs Marie Bouzkova · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Ekaterina Alexandrova · 2026-10-23Won
- vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich · 2026-10-21Won
- vs Elise Mertens · 2026-10-19Won
- vs Jelena Ostapenko · 2026-10-15Lost
- vs Han Shi · 2026-10-14Won
- vs Ekaterina Alexandrova · 2026-10-12Won
- vs Kamilla Rakhimova · 2026-10-03Lost
Elise Mertens
- Ranking
- #14 (seed 5)
- Elo
- 1756
- Hard 2026
- 22–13
- Matches, last 14 days
- 2
- Days since last match
- 2
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Moyuka Uchijima · 2026-10-26Won
- vs Leylah Annie Fernandez · 2026-10-19Lost
- vs Daria Snigur · 2026-10-13Lost
- vs Qinwen Zheng · 2026-10-10Lost
- vs Iga Swiatek · 2026-10-09Won
- vs Cori Gauff · 2026-10-07Won
- vs Jelena Ostapenko · 2026-10-05Won
- vs Katie Volynets · 2026-10-03Won
- vs Maja Chwalinska · 2026-09-25Lost
- vs Naomi Osaka · 2026-09-05Lost
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Leylah Annie Fernandez 2–2 Elise Mertens. On hard: 2–2.
All 4 meetings with scores and stats →Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Fernandez | Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 62.6% | 59.0% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 64.7% | 66.8% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 47.3% | 45.4% |
| Break points saved | 58.0% | 56.0% |
| Break points converted | 47.0% | 47.7% |
| Ace rate | 3.1% | 5.1% |
| Double-fault rate | 6.2% | 6.7% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.