Kimberly Birrell vs Daria Kasatkina
Hard · Best of 3 · Sun 25 Oct, 03:10 UTC
Model vs marketDaria Kasatkina: Busy
Who wins the Toray Pan Pacific Open? Title chances →Result
Daria Kasatkina won 6-3 6-4. The model had Kimberly Birrell at 63%, so this one went the other way.
Model vs. market
Kimberly Birrellmodel 63% · market 54%
Daria Kasatkinamodel 37% · market 46%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (4.2%) removed.
- Kimberly Birrell has won 7 of the last 10 matches.
- Daria Kasatkina has won 3 of the last 10 matches.
- Kimberly Birrell is 25–17 on hard in 2026.
- Daria Kasatkina is 10–13 on hard in 2026.
- Kimberly Birrell leads the head-to-head 1–0.
- Daria Kasatkina has played 5 matches in the last 14 days.
- The model rates Kimberly Birrell 9 points higher than the market does.
Kimberly Birrell
- Ranking
- #41
- Elo
- 1684
- Hard 2026
- 25–17
- Matches, last 14 days
- 2
- Days since last match
- 0
Last 10: 7W – 3L
- vs Aoi Ito · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Katie Volynets · 2026-10-13Lost
- vs Marie Bouzkova · 2026-10-03Lost
- vs Aoi Ito · 2026-10-01Won
- vs Maya Joint · 2026-09-27Won
- vs Anna Bondar · 2026-09-26Won
- vs Katie Volynets · 2026-09-26Won
- vs Yexin Ma · 2026-09-24Won
- vs Tamara Zidansek · 2026-09-22Won
- vs Ekaterina Alexandrova · 2026-09-02Lost
Daria Kasatkina
- Ranking
- #74
- Elo
- 1593
- Hard 2026
- 10–13
- Matches, last 14 days
- 5
- Days since last match
- 0
Last 10: 3W – 7L
- vs Yexin Ma · 2026-10-24Won
- vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich · 2026-10-19Lost
- vs Jelena Ostapenko · 2026-10-13Lost
- vs Sara Sorribes Tormo · 2026-10-11Won
- vs Viktorija Golubic · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Paula Badosa Gibert · 2026-10-01Lost
- vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich · 2026-09-21Lost
- vs Paula Badosa Gibert · 2026-09-02Lost
- vs Zeynep Sonmez · 2026-08-13Lost
- vs Elena Rybakina · 2026-08-05Lost
Head-to-head
All surfaces: Kimberly Birrell 1–0 Daria Kasatkina. On hard: 1–0.
All 1 meetings with scores and stats →Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Birrell | Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 63.1% | 67.8% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 63.7% | 60.5% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 44.9% | 42.7% |
| Break points saved | 54.7% | 53.0% |
| Break points converted | 45.5% | 49.1% |
| Ace rate | 2.7% | 2.2% |
| Double-fault rate | 6.2% | 6.0% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.