Yexin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina
Hard · Best of 3 · Sat 24 Oct, 07:50 UTC
Toss-upYexin Ma: ColdModel vs market
Who wins the Toray Pan Pacific Open? Title chances →Result
Daria Kasatkina won 6-2 6-2. The model had Daria Kasatkina at 55%, so the favourite came through.
Model vs. market
Yexin Mamodel 45% · market 20%
Daria Kasatkinamodel 55% · market 80%
Bar: our surface Elo model. White tick: the market, bookmaker margin (4.3%) removed.
- Yexin Ma has won 5 of the last 10 matches.
- Daria Kasatkina has won 3 of the last 10 matches.
- Yexin Ma is 25–22 on hard in 2026.
- Daria Kasatkina is 9–13 on hard in 2026.
- The model rates Yexin Ma 25 points higher than the market does.
Yexin Ma
- Ranking
- #200
- Elo
- 1560
- Hard 2026
- 25–22
- Matches, last 14 days
- 0
- Days since last match
- 18
Last 10: 5W – 5L
- vs Elvina Kalieva · 2026-10-05Lost
- vs Polina Kudermetova · 2026-09-30Lost
- vs Harriet Dart · 2026-09-29Lost
- vs Yufei Ren · 2026-09-28Won
- vs Kimberly Birrell · 2026-09-24Lost
- vs Emerson Jones · 2026-09-22Won
- vs Eunhye Lee · 2026-09-20Won
- vs Carol Zhao · 2026-09-19Won
- vs Tahlia Kokkinis · 2026-09-10Lost
- vs Kristiana Sidorova · 2026-09-08Won
Daria Kasatkina
- Ranking
- #74
- Elo
- 1593
- Hard 2026
- 9–13
- Matches, last 14 days
- 4
- Days since last match
- 4
Last 10: 3W – 7L
- vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich · 2026-10-19Lost
- vs Jelena Ostapenko · 2026-10-13Lost
- vs Sara Sorribes Tormo · 2026-10-11Won
- vs Viktorija Golubic · 2026-10-10Won
- vs Paula Badosa Gibert · 2026-10-01Lost
- vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich · 2026-09-21Lost
- vs Paula Badosa Gibert · 2026-09-02Lost
- vs Zeynep Sonmez · 2026-08-13Lost
- vs Elena Rybakina · 2026-08-05Lost
- vs Xinyu Wang · 2026-08-03Won
Head-to-head
No head-to-head data available.
Serve and return
Career figures from the data provider.
| Ma | Kasatkina | |
|---|---|---|
| First serve in | 58.3% | 67.8% |
| Points won on 1st serve | 61.0% | 60.5% |
| Points won on 2nd serve | 46.4% | 42.7% |
| Break points saved | 51.5% | 52.9% |
| Break points converted | 47.6% | 49.1% |
| Ace rate | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Double-fault rate | 5.4% | 6.0% |
Model estimate, not a betting tip. Not tracked as a bet. 18+. Gamble responsibly. Compare any two ratings yourself in the Elo Win Probability Calculator, or remove the margin from other prices with the no-vig calculator.
The analysis behind every pick is in the Discord
This page is the model's view. Our actual picks get a full written analysis and further filters, and they are posted in the free Discord before the match.